Officials believe that until this moment there will be no commercial demand for technology. Because of this, mass construction of networks will begin not earlier than in three years.
According to the new plan, the implementation of 5G networks will take place in several stages:
- In the first quarter of 2019, the concept of the development of fifth-generation networks should be approved;
- A few months later, by the end of 2019, will approve the frequency range;
- The launch of the first pilot projects is planned for the last months of 2020. It will happen in one million-millionaire city and in “five key industries of Russia”. What kind of industry is not yet clear;
- The conditions for the large-scale launch of the fifth-generation networks in Russia will not appear until the end of 2021.
The timing shift is not the first time in the history of the Russian 5G. According to the plan approved in the summer of 2017, by the year 2021, the fifth-generation networks should appear in five cities with a population over one million. In three years the list will increase to 15 largest cities in the country.
The following changes in the plans occurred already in early 2018: they decided to abandon the “carpet” principle in favour of the branch one. The concept of network development was planned to be approved by June 2018.
Now for the implementation of each item of the plan, a year is added. The main reason is “lack of commercial demand”. If we translate this into human Russian, then it turns out that there are not now those who are ready to invest in the development of networks.
According to the consulting company PricewaterhouseCoopers, Russian operators will have to invest from 130 to 165 billion rubles in the period from 2020 to 2027 in the development of networks of the fifth generation.
Understand the operators in this situation can: on their shoulders lay another important financial commitment – the “package Yarovoi. ” MegaFon’s CEO Sergei Soldatenkov claimed that the operator would spend 35-40 billion rubles until 2023. At the same time, MTS will spend more than $ 60 billion. VimpelCom also expects to spend about 45 billion rubles. All this money had to go to development, but instead, they will go to implement the “Yarovoy package.”
Whence in such a situation to take money for development 5G? While it is not clear. It is likely that the current shift in timing will not be the last in this story.